In September, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month; the year-on-year decrease in the industrial producer price index (PPI) narrowed to 2.5%, rising by 0.4% month-on-month. Data reflect that my country's CPI has continued to rise moderately recently, and the year-on-year decline in PPI has continued to narrow. In particular, both CPI and PPI have continued to rise month-on-month, indicating that the overall price level is entering a stable recovery channel. The stabilization and recovery of prices are conducive to balancing market supply and demand, promoting the profit growth of real enterprises, and boosting the confidence of operating entities, which lays a solid foundation for the continued stabilization and improvement of the economy.
The trend of changes in the overall price level is an important signal for economic operation. The technical characteristics of the price index determine that the year-on-year increase is affected to a certain extent by the price base of the same period last year, while the month-on-month increase can more intuitively reflect the recent marginal changes in market supply and demand and prices. The recent month-on-month increases in CPI and PPI reflect a significant improvement in the macroeconomic performance at the margin.
Judging from September data, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the prices of eight major categories of goods and services "six increased, one remained flat, and one fell" month-on-month. Urban CPI and rural CPI, food prices and non-food prices all increased slightly month-on-month. Affected by the end of the summer tourism and travel peak in August, the prices of air tickets, travel, hotel accommodation, etc. in September fell compared with the previous month, driving service prices to fall slightly by 0.1% month-on-month. However, consumer goods prices rebounded by 0.4% month-on-month, supporting the month-on-month recovery of CPI. . PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of means of production and means of living increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively month-on-month. The prices of the mining industry, raw material industry and processing industry among the means of production all showed month-on-month increases. Among the means of life, except for the prices of durable consumer goods, food, clothing and general The prices of daily necessities all showed a month-on-month increase. It can be seen from the month-on-month increases and structural characteristics of CPI and PPI that the improvement of supply and demand relations and the rebound in prices in September have strong overall characteristics.
If the perspective of observation is extended to the entire third quarter, it can be found that the CPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, and the PPI has increased month-on-month for two consecutive months. This shows that positive factors in the economic operation are constantly accumulating, and the marginal recovery of the overall price level has continuity. The continuous month-on-month increase in CPI and PPI will not only drive the contribution of new price increase factors to the year-on-year increase in 2023 to continue to rise, laying the foundation for the overall price level to establish a rebound trend, but will also push up the contribution of tail-eating factors to the price increase in 2024, providing a solid foundation for the overall price level. Returning to the normal growth rate before the epidemic creates favorable conditions. In the past three months, CPI has increased by 0.7% month-on-month, driving the new price increase factor in CPI to rebound from -0.5% in June to 0.2% in September; core CPI excluding food and energy has increased by 0.6% month-on-month, supporting The core CPI has remained stable at the second-highest level of the year at 0.8% for three consecutive months. In the past two months, PPI has increased by 0.6% month-on-month, driving the new price increase factor in PPI to rebound from -2.8% in July to -2.3% in September. In the third quarter, CPI and PPI continued to rise at the margin. This was not only due to the impact of short-term factors such as consumption entering the summer peak season and the phased increase in international commodity prices, but also due to the continued release of the effects of regulatory policies, the continuous improvement of market supply and demand, and the stabilization and improvement of the macro economy. This is reflected in the month-on-month rise in core CPI and the apparent recovery in PMI.
Looking to the future, judging from various economic indicators and market reactions, my country's overall price level does not have the basis for a sustained downward trend. In the third quarter, CPI and PPI continued to rise month-on-month, initially establishing a stabilizing and rising trend in prices. In the next period of time, there is a high probability that the CPI operating center will be stable and rising, and the PPI will bottom out and begin to gradually move closer to the normalized level. As the economy picks up, demand steadily picks up, and the base effect weakens. In addition, there is ample supply of industrial and agricultural products and services, and smooth connection between production and sales. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI will rebound steadily in the fourth quarter, and the decline in PPI will also further narrow.
It should be pointed out that considering that the global economic recovery is still slow and uneven, and the international political and economic environment is still complex and severe, and there are many uncertain factors, as the effects of domestic policies continue to be released, the market supply and demand relationship is gradually restored, and prices are improving steadily , Macroeconomic control still cannot be relaxed. In the next stage, it is still necessary to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, continue to enhance development vitality and motivation, accurately grasp the problems and challenges existing in economic operations, strengthen countercyclical adjustments, introduce highly targeted policy measures, and promote the accelerated implementation of various policies to achieve results. In terms of stabilizing prices, we must not only ensure the supply and price of important commodities for people's livelihood, strengthen price control of key commodities and services, but also continuously improve enterprise production and operations, enhance consumer and investment confidence, and consolidate the macroeconomic foundation for stable price operation.