Over the years, the Chinese economy has been the world economic growth engine. When the first intersection of 2022 and 2023, all parties are paying attention to and predicting what the Chinese economy will perform in 2023. In an interview with the Global Times reporter, most enterprises, experts and institutions believe that the "three -driving carriage" momentum of consumption, investment and exports will still drive the Chinese economy steadily.
1. Exit: Listen to Yiwu merchants about preparation for foreign trade
The National Health and Health Commission announced on the evening of the 26th that after the cancellation of the nucleic acid testing and centralized isolation after the entry, the merchants in Yiwu, Zhejiang have become more active these days. Yiwu is the "vane" of China's export economy. Entrepreneurs interviewed by the Global Times said that a large number of companies will organize a large number of enterprises to go to sea next year, and even some companies have deployed overseas for half a year in advance. Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association, told the Global Times reporter that the Chinese foreign trade economy is tough, especially private enterprises are very tenacious. Although the external environment is severe and the profits are not high, as long as it can be maintained, the private economy will insist on supporting the support live.
"At this time next year, you can call me again. (Our business) will be better," Huang Changchao, president of Yiwu Cultural Products Industry Association in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province, told the Global Times reporter on the 24th that he was just "Yang Yang "Kang" is currently discussing the key tasks of next year with some cultural supplies companies in Yiwu -holding a group to the sea.
Huang Changchao said that next year, Yiwu stationery companies are preparing to go out to go out. Compared with "going to the sea and other places such as Ningbo, Jiaxing and other places in Zhejiang, Huang Changchao planned to focus on the stationery industry. The industry goes to the sea to find foreign merchants more accurately. "
Zhejiang Yiwu Double Children's straw is the "invisible champion" of the global straw industry. The founder Lou Zhongping also told the Global Times reporter that the double child planned to plan for the second half of 2022 and began to work out of the foreign exhibition. He revealed that they spent 50,000 to 600,000 yuan in the exposure and decoration in Frankfurt in Germany. Next year, there will be exhibitions such as Chicago, Tokyo, Japan, and Hong Kong, China. Twin children will also participate.
Lou Zhongping is also the founder of the "Two -child Entrepreneurship Sharing Platform". Through the Shuangtong Business School he founded, he has contacted many small and medium entrepreneurs in Yiwu. "Objectively speaking, it has been quite difficult for Yiwu enterprises in recent years. Only early transformation and innovation can the company have a way to live." Lou Zhongping told reporters that due to the transformation in the past two years The enterprise is much better. Last year and this year, the output value of the double children doubled. Lou Zhongping said that it is believed that the Chinese economy will be very good next year. "Not only me, most of the Yiwu entrepreneurs and enterprises think so."
As for the stationery industry, Huang Changchao believes that the market will be better next year. In fact, the epidemic has not impacted the Yiwu stationery industry for 3 years. Yiwu stationery companies represented by Zhejiang Changchaowen have limited companies. During the epidemic, they started to transform and attach importance to R & D design. Many companies have their own designers. "Our products can now be comparable to South Korea and Japan." Huang Changchao told reporters that the macaron color and Morandi -colored stationery sold by Yiwu is now welcomed by overseas markets. He also admits that Yiwu stationery is different from Japan and South Korea in quality, but from the perspective of the naked eye, Yiwu products are no less than that of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.
"I am quite optimistic about the resurrection of the Chinese economy." Huang Changchao told reporters that he will mainly find design talents next year. The company plans to join forces with colleges and design companies next year.
Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" recently commented on the title of "China Economy Full Blood Resurrection next year", saying that the development of the economy has become the first priority for officials at all levels in China. High -level requires starting from supporting the development of the private economy and boosting market confidence, which is conducive to the restoration of vitality in the Chinese economy as soon as possible. According to the Wall Street Journal, since December, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other provincial governments have led the establishment of commercial troupes to "grab orders" overseas. Bloomberg said that the focus of China's economic work next year will be to revive GDP and vigorously promote economic development.
In early December, Lu Chenhui, the fabric department of Zhejiang Jiaxin Silk Co., Ltd., followed the delegation to "go to sea to grab orders" with the delegation. "It feels good, and the results are good," Lu Chenhui said in an interview with the Global Times reporter. This is a face -to -face communication with customers after 3 years.
Lu Chenhui said that at the beginning of this year, the shipping freight of shipping in Europe has risen. At the same time, due to the epidemic, the goods that originally went from Shanghai Port to the sea could only be transferred to the port of Ningbo or other ports, which had a certain impact on cost control and delivery. "Now that we have basically resumed normal. After the next year is completely released, we can travel freely with foreign customers, and the productivity and supply chain will gradually recover. We have confidence that the overall economy will become better and better next year."
In an interview with the Global Times reporter, He Weiwen, executive director of the China International Trade Society, said that from the past two months of export data, the current foreign trade situation is severe, which is also one of the reasons why many regiments in the country have taken the initiative to grab orders in the country. He Weiwen said that the difficulties of the foreign trade economy are mainly from three aspects: first, the global economy is under great pressure and the demand for foreign trade has weakened; second, the domestic epidemic situation has been repeated in the fourth quarter, which is affected by production and transportation, which leads to the transfer of foreign orders. Third, Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia After the outbreak of the Black conflict, the United States vigorously promoted its camp construction worldwide, and it is reflected in the global market to set up card restrictions on exports to China.
Zhang Kuo, president of Alibaba International Station, believes that the overall foreign trade situation will come out of a "U -shaped" rebound curve next year. From the recent data, the inflation rate in Europe and the United States is falling from a high level. Restore next year.
Huo Jianguo told the Global Times reporter that although the Chinese economy is facing external pressures with reduced demand and decline in orders next year, as long as European and American countries do not have a large -scale decline, the basic market of China's foreign trade economy is still steadily. "If economic supporting measures will increase next year, the economic vitality in the second half of the year will be stronger. Coupled with the convergence of the epidemic, I am more optimistic about the growth of the foreign trade economy in the second half of next year."
"When the complicated and severe situation of foreign countries cannot be changed, we can actively change the domestic environment," He Weiwen told reporters. First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified the economic work policy next year and set the tone to restore the economy. Immediately afterwards, my country optimized the prevention and control policy of the epidemic and maximized the economic recovery. "From the perspective of the global situation, optimism is expected to improve the downlink pressure of the international market after the second quarter of next year, and domestic and foreign trade companies must seize the opportunity."
He Weiwen believes that in addition to the United States and European markets, ASEAN countries and countries along the “Belt and Road” are also important markets with foreign trade. According to customs statistics, from January to November this year, my country and the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) total import and export of members of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) was 11.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9%year-on-year, accounting for 30.7%of my country's total foreign trade import and export. The spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Shu Jingsing Ting on the 29th, said on the 29th that RCEP will be effective since the implementation of January 1, 2022. The next step, the Ministry Each local, industries and enterprises use sufficient agreement to continuously improve the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of free trade agreements.
2. Investment: 98.7%of foreign -funded enterprises will maintain expansion of investment in China
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2022, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.3%year -on -year, and investment became an important part of the economy. With the further optimization of China's epidemic prevention policy, foreign companies are more confident in China's economic development prospects in 2023, and investment in China has also been put on the agenda.
A report issued by the China Trade Council shows that 91%of the foreign -funded enterprises and business associations are very supportive of China's optimized epidemic prevention and control policies. 98.7%of the foreign companies interviewed will maintain and expand investment in China. It means that it will be maintained in the China Industry Chain.
A statement issued by the British Chamber of Commerce on the 28th stated that the relaxation of entry restrictions from China will help restore the optimistic emotions of enterprises and help "make China a priority destination (foreign capital)." The statement states that if the handling of related business visas has also been further relaxed, it will marked the significant reduction of exchanges and dialogue on the government, enterprises and personal levels since the beginning of 2020.
The Chairman of the Chinese EU Chamber of Commerce told reporters that the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention policy will boost business confidence. "It will provide convenience for the (multinational) corporate headquarters to visit China. In the past three years, it is difficult for them to visit China for themselves. In addition, this will also have a way for Chinese employees to exchange and train overseas."
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times reporter that the positive response of foreign companies on China's epidemic prevention policy highlights that China is still a popular investment destination for foreign investment. China's huge market and perfect industrial chain chain And the continuous expansion of opening up still has a strong comprehensive competitive advantage.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to November this year, the actual amount of foreign capital used in the country was 115.609 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%year -on -year. Experts interviewed by the Global Times reporters believe that under the unfavorable situation of the rising expectations of the world economy and the prevalence of protectionism, this fully indicates that China is an opportunity for the development of countries around the world.
3. Consumption: It is generally optimistic that companies to introduce measures in many places
With the further optimization and adjustment of China's epidemic prevention policy, the recovery of consumption in 2023 was highly hoped for the market. As the first economic streaming force in the "three -driving carriage", the recently held Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that next year, "focus on expanding domestic demand", of which "should be preferred to restore and expand consumption." McKinsey's recent report predicted that China's consumption momentum is expected to begin to recover in 2023, and the increasingly rich Chinese consumers still have strong toughness.
For a period of time, consumer policy has been introduced in many places across the country to accelerate the orderly recovery of the market. Electronic consumer coupons are issued in some places, including Jiangxi and other places to directly stimulate market vitality through the form of replenishment of catering market entities.
Independent international strategy researcher Chen Jia told the Global Times reporter on the 29th that from the perspective of offline consumption data such as first -tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the current consumption recovery process is far faster than expected. The potential for Chinese folk consumption is due to epidemic prevention. Continuous optimization of control policies will be released.
Mentioning expectations for the consumer market in 2023, companies interviewed by the Global Times reporters generally hold an optimistic attitude. "2023 will be a hopeful year." Guo Mu, the president of the Chinese Police, President of the United States Nutrition Company, told the Global Times reporter that Herbalife has felt the popularity of the recovery of the consumer market in China The public's importance to their own nutrition and health has greatly drove Chinese consumers' needs for high -quality nutrition products.
Dong Wenda, the secretary of the board of directors of Master Bao, told the Global Times reporter on the 29th that the company plans to expand the number of stores to 182 to 210 in 2023, maintaining a 30%-50%growth of 140 from the end of 2022.
Han Jingjing, vice president of Swiss air purification brand IQAIR market sales, told the Global Times reporter that she was optimistic about the company's business growth in China in 2023. "After the announcement of the optimization of epidemic prevention policies in China, we immediately informed the company's executives in Switzerland and arranged for the company's chief executive officer Frank Hams to visit China after the Chinese New Year. In exchanges, China may have a comprehensive economic recovery next year. "
Although consumption recovery has become a major trend in 2023, some experts have also reminded that this process may not be "smooth sail." Chen Jia believes that the entire consumer sector will take time to reach the state of supply and demand before the epidemic. Hong Yong, an associate researcher at the Institute of Electronic Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the consumer side must return to the level before the epidemic, at least to wait until the second half of 2023 or even later.